Chief Investigator: Edilson Arruda, Associate Professor, University of Southampton

Team:

Christine Currie University of Southampton

Alexandra Hogan NHS Salisbury/ University of Southampton

Jamie MacNamara University Hospital Southampton

Mark Wright University Hospital Southampton

Michael Boniface University of Southampton

Carlos Lamas-Fernandez University of Southampton

Partners: Salisbury Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, University of Southapton, University Hospital NHS Foundation Trust.

Start: 1 October 2024

End: 31 March 2026

Summary

Over time, health systems face changes. Population grows older or hospitals can perform new treatments. It is difficult to match the resources of hospitals with population needs. If they do not match, waiting times for treatment increase and hospitals become fuller. Hospitals being too full can result in worse care for patients. For example, hospitals might need to cancel surgeries.

Aim(s) of the research

When the usual demand for hospital resources changes, it becomes difficult for hospitals to provide care. We call this turbulence. Our first objective is to define how turbulence can be measured from data. Then, we will use artificial intelligence to understand the causes of turbulence. We will also create models for short-term prediction of turbulence. This will help hospital plan better.

Design and methods used

This project will look at the records of patients in hospitals to understand what resources they use. The data will give us an understanding of how long certain activities take. For example, the recovery from surgery. We will predict when these times are changing using artificial intelligence. This can help hospitals be alert of upcoming changes, so they choose the best way to react.

Patient, public and community involvement (PPCI)

We will engage with the views of public, patients and communities during the project execution phase. We will hold workshops with patient groups that have been to hospital. We will understand their views on the planning services. We will also take into account their ideas when defining turbulence.

Dissemination

This project was co-designed and will be supported by University Hospital Southampton (UHS) and Salisbury Hospital. The results will be disseminated and championed within the partnering institutions, and further presented in workshops involving neighbouring NHS Trusts in Wessex and in the south east and south west of England. We will also publish papers and reports to disseminate the work to a larger audience within the UK and internationally.